Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Trains

Only 16 developers shipped a Train Action-Adventure in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.3k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2675 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 26 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $255k → $6.1k → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $8.3k (exactly $8,266)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $84,515)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 29
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 1990's, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 5,145 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $8.3k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Choo-Choo Charles older $19.99 16,292 91% 489k $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) Two Star Games
Zompiercer · EA older $19.99 4,562 88% 137k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,831) DDDimanN
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Zoochosis $24.99 2,200 60% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) Clapperheads
Back in Service: a Metro Driver · EA $18.99 448 97% 13k $255k (exactly $255,226) Dominik Vojta
Goblin Company $9.99 282 81% 8.5k $85k (exactly $84,515) BitBorne Studio
Conductor older $9.99 248 93% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) Overflow
Re:Turn - One Way Trip older $11.99 132 79% 4.0k $47k (exactly $47,480) Red Ego Games
Switchcars older $8.99 164 90% 4.9k $44k (exactly $44,231) Altfuture
Recolit older $14.99 88 87% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Image Labo, Marudice
Locomotive 115 $5.99 130 93% 3.9k $23k (exactly $23,361) Bucket of Fish
Calcium Chaos $9.99 52 96% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Lunch Money Games
Mad Merchant $5.99 72 79% 2.2k $13k (exactly $12,938) Ravenholm Interactive
Anomalous Railroad Crossing $5.99 46 86% 1.4k $8.3k (exactly $8,266) Liner Studio
Train Station Simulator: Together in Japan $4.99 41 90% 1.2k $6.1k (exactly $6,138) Çınar's Art
Iron Trails: Outlaw Pursuit · EA $17.99 7 14% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Gloac Games, Gloac

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.