Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Logic game?

Logic + Trains

Only 19 developers shipped a Train Logic game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2675 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 19 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $18k → $1.4k → $3.1k → $3.1k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,978)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 46
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Logic; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automation, Building, Sandbox
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cozy, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,817 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Railbound older $12.99 1,818 94% 55k $708k (exactly $708,475) Afterburn
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
How 2 Escape older $12.99 684 71% 21k $267k (exactly $266,555) Breakfirst Games
Super Loco World - Cozy Train Automation $9.99 329 76% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,601) Andrii Bychkovskyi
Train World older $34.99 85 75% 2.6k $89k (exactly $89,224) Turn Point Games
Train Yard Builder older $19.99 100 71% 3.0k $60k (exactly $59,970) GameFormatic S.A.
Spooky Express $14.99 80 98% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) Draknek and Friends
Railway Islands - Puzzle older $3.99 230 94% 6.9k $28k (exactly $27,531) Rising Moon Games
Railroad Ink Challenge older $7.99 88 82% 2.6k $21k (exactly $21,094) Horrible Guild
Mysteries of Old Tokyo $12.99 41 100% 1.2k $16k (exactly $15,978) Bolerosoft
Stoplights $8.99 39 89% 1.2k $11k (exactly $10,518) Wicked Blobfish
Trackastrophe! $8.99 29 100% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Kinoko Studio
Railway Dispatcher $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) たでぃまる
Metro Architect · EA $9.90 11 54% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,267) Northern21 Studio
Golden Rails: The heart of the state $6.99 15 93% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Alawar Casual

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.