Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train City Builder?

City Builder + Trains

Of 32 developers who shipped a Train City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1005 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 35 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 35 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $18k → $40k → $60k → $18k → $4.0k → $21k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Median $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 25% $116k (exactly $115,964)
Top 5% $631k (exactly $631,042)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 111
Announced 35
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 5,111 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.8k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.8k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
Factory Town older $19.99 4,142 90% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,483,957) Erik Asmussen
Automation Empire older $29.99 2,584 65% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) DOG HOGGLER
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Steel Artery: Train City Builder $14.99 305 71% 9.2k $137k (exactly $137,158) SoulAge23
Islands & Trains $6.99 553 89% 17k $116k (exactly $115,964) Akos Makovics
Factory Town 2: Paradise · EA $24.99 151 89% 4.5k $113k (exactly $113,205) Erik Asmussen
A-Train 9 V5.0 : Japan Train Simulator Ultimate Edition $39.99 36 77% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) ARTDINK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.