Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle game?

Puzzle

Of 6,513 developers who shipped a Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9,178 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×6.0 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×1179 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 9,178 games are announced against 3,827 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 9,178 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6,513
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.4k → $1.0k → $1.1k → $836 → $897 → $629 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6,513
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,797)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,330)
Developers, 2 yr 6,513
Released games 26,592
Announced 9,178
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 295,844 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 4,228 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9,178 games are announced against 3,827 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Puzzle

247 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Puzzle + Trains Poor odds $3.1k 27 devs
  2. Puzzle + Visual Novel Poor odds $3.1k 439 devs
  3. Otome + Puzzle Poor odds $3.1k 13 devs
  4. Swordplay + Puzzle Poor odds $3.0k 13 devs
  5. Puzzle + Crime Poor odds $2.8k 166 devs
  6. Party-Based RPG + Puzzle Poor odds $2.7k 32 devs
  7. Puzzle + Female Protagonist Poor odds $2.7k 711 devs
  8. Pinball + Puzzle Poor odds $2.5k 9 devs
  9. Colony Sim + Puzzle Poor odds $2.5k 25 devs
  10. Life Sim + Puzzle Poor odds $2.4k 160 devs
  11. Puzzle + Alternate History Poor odds $2.4k 86 devs
  12. Base Building + Puzzle Poor odds $2.2k 73 devs
  13. Turn-Based + Puzzle Poor odds $2.2k 55 devs
  14. Shop Keeper + Puzzle Poor odds $2.2k 40 devs
  15. Puzzle + Conspiracy Poor odds $2.1k 99 devs
  16. JRPG + Puzzle Poor odds $2.1k 88 devs
  17. CRPG + Puzzle Poor odds $2.1k 50 devs
  18. Puzzle + Transhumanism Poor odds $1.9k 16 devs
  19. Puzzle + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $1.9k 459 devs
  20. Online Co-Op + Puzzle Poor odds $1.9k 254 devs
  21. Puzzle + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $1.9k 133 devs
  22. Co-op + Puzzle Poor odds $1.9k 300 devs
  23. Puzzle + Underwater Poor odds $1.8k 38 devs
  24. Transportation + Puzzle Poor odds $1.8k 39 devs
  25. Driving + Puzzle Poor odds $1.8k 35 devs
  26. Puzzle + Steampunk Poor odds $1.7k 40 devs
  27. Immersive Sim + Puzzle Poor odds $1.7k 491 devs
  28. Creature Collector + Puzzle Poor odds $1.7k 118 devs
  29. RPG + Puzzle Poor odds $1.6k 666 devs
  30. Puzzle + Mystery Poor odds $1.6k 1,561 devs
  31. Investigation + Puzzle Poor odds $1.6k 686 devs
  32. Puzzle + Supernatural Poor odds $1.6k 436 devs
  33. Open World + Puzzle Poor odds $1.6k 229 devs
  34. Puzzle + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.5k 1,241 devs
  35. Puzzle + Detective Poor odds $1.5k 624 devs
  36. Survival Horror + Puzzle Poor odds $1.5k 531 devs
  37. Automobile Sim + Puzzle Poor odds $1.5k 19 devs
  38. Point & Click + Puzzle Poor odds $1.4k 974 devs
  39. Choose Your Own Adventure + Puzzle Poor odds $1.4k 299 devs
  40. Building + Puzzle Poor odds $1.4k 255 devs
  41. Puzzle + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 163 devs
  42. Puzzle + Noir Poor odds $1.4k 158 devs
  43. Inventory Management + Puzzle Poor odds $1.4k 152 devs
  44. Puzzle + Time Travel Poor odds $1.4k 83 devs
  45. Puzzle + Animals Poor odds $1.4k 59 devs
  46. Sandbox + Puzzle Poor odds $1.3k 270 devs
  47. Management + Puzzle Poor odds $1.3k 261 devs
  48. Local Co-Op + Puzzle Poor odds $1.3k 147 devs
  49. Adventure + Puzzle Poor odds $1.3k 3,083 devs
  50. Exploration + Puzzle Poor odds $1.3k 2,237 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M It Takes Two 2021 · $262M Resident Evil 2 2019 · $187M STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M Stray 2022 · $142M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Resident Evil 2 older $39.99 156,065 97% 4.7M $187M (exactly $187,231,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
REANIMAL $39.99 13,809 78% 414k $17M (exactly $16,566,657) Tarsier Studios
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Little Nightmares III $39.99 10,165 46% 305k $12M (exactly $12,194,950) Supermassive Games
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.