Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle CRPG?

CRPG + Puzzle

Of 50 developers who shipped a Puzzle CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×241 the market median. Revenue is up 475% on the market; 79 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 79 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $713 → $958 → $2.1k → $955 → $3.1k → $4.3k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,064)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,317)
Top 5% $361k (exactly $361,019)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 179
Announced 79
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Puzzle; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 13,410 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M Mandate Of Heaven 2025 · $2.4M Threefold Recital 2025 · $2.3M Shadows Over Loathing 2022 · $2.2M Shadows: Awakening 2018 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
Shadows Over Loathing older $22.99 3,120 95% 94k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,864) Asymmetric
Shadows: Awakening older $29.99 1,535 75% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,040) Games Farm
Pocket Mirror ~ GoldenerTraum older $19.99 1,574 92% 47k $944k (exactly $943,928) AstralShift, VisuStella
The Bard's Tale IV: Director's Cut older $34.99 694 77% 21k $728k (exactly $728,492) inXile Entertainment
Vaporum older $19.99 998 84% 30k $599k (exactly $598,501) Fatbot Games, s. r. o.
Operencia: The Stolen Sun older $29.99 537 76% 16k $483k (exactly $483,139) Zen Studios
消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
沙雕之路 $10.00 1,039 96% 31k $312k (exactly $311,700) 馆叔
CaseCracker3 $12.99 359 84% 11k $140k (exactly $139,902) BlackRobe
Tower of Mask $10.99 357 95% 11k $118k (exactly $117,703) Papertip Studio
The Darkness Below $16.99 78 80% 2.3k $40k (exactly $39,757) ELEFTHERIADIS SAVVAS
桂花落 $4.99 250 93% 7.5k $37k (exactly $37,425) 脆报纸工作室
Herb Tea Man $10.99 73 94% 2.2k $24k (exactly $24,068) Cateasee Studio
Whisper of Y'Ryando $7.99 89 70% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) IndieCain, YuetXD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.