Do I ship it?

GamesTransportationTransportation + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Transportation game?

Transportation + Puzzle

Of 39 developers who shipped a Puzzle Transportation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3389 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 53 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transportation + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $20k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $598 → $3.2k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transportation + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,988)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 126
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Transportation, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Logic
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.69 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.69 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 22,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Transportation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  2. + PvPFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + 3D PlatformerFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  4. + RacingFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  5. + Action-AdventureFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  6. + LogicFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  7. + ArcadeFair37 devs · median $839 · 32 announced
  8. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $747 · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $43k · 17 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds24 devs · median $27k · 48 announced

All 53 pairs on the Transportation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Mini Motorways older $9.99 23,561 96% 707k $7.1M (exactly $7,061,232) Dinosaur Polo Club
Mini Metro older $9.99 12,800 95% 384k $3.8M (exactly $3,836,160) Dinosaur Polo Club
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Rail Route older $24.99 2,400 88% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,799,280) Bitrich.info
Fly Corp older $14.99 3,112 85% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,466) KishMish Games
RAILGRADE older $29.99 1,205 84% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,084,138) Minakata Dynamics
I am an Air Traffic Controller 4 older $59.99 566 79% 17k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,630) TechnoBrain
Train Valley older $9.99 2,621 89% 79k $786k (exactly $785,514) Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timof… (Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timofey Shargorodskiy, Flazm)
GRIDROAD $9.99 385 82% 12k $115k (exactly $115,384) RAJACORP
Super Loco World - Cozy Train Automation $9.99 329 76% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,601) Andrii Bychkovskyi
Train Valley Origins $11.95 266 75% 8.0k $95k (exactly $95,361) Flazm
ATC Ground Point $15.99 77 81% 2.3k $37k (exactly $36,937) Blueon
Constracktion $14.99 62 66% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Lapioware
The Lilliput Workshop $7.99 51 88% 1.5k $12k (exactly $12,225) Cotton Game
Parking in Tight Spaces $9.99 40 77% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Hungry Devs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.