Should I ship a Puzzle RPG?
RPG + Puzzle
Of 666 developers who shipped a Puzzle RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,174 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×409 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 1,174 games are announced against 366 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,619) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $16,018) |
| Top 5% | $257k (exactly $256,672) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 666 |
| Released games | 2,591 |
| Announced | 1,174 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 185,906 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 414 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,174 games are announced against 366 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ 2016 · $115M 
Tomb Raider Game of the Year 2013 · $104M 
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | Rise of the Tomb Raider™ | older | $29.99 | 127,316 94% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $114,546,205) | Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes) |
| | Tomb Raider Game of the Year | older | $19.99 | 173,270 95% | 5.2M | $104M (exactly $103,910,019) | Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes) |
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
 | MiSide | $14.99 | 122,007 97% | 3.7M | $55M (exactly $54,866,548) | AIHASTO | |
 | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
 | FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster | older | $29.99 | 19,857 87% | 596k | $18M (exactly $17,865,343) | Square Enix |
 | OneShot | older | $9.99 | 59,201 98% | 1.8M | $18M (exactly $17,742,540) | Future Cat LLC |
 | Darksiders III | older | $39.99 | 12,519 75% | 376k | $15M (exactly $15,019,044) | Gunfire Games |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Little Witch in the Woods | $19.99 | 11,691 89% | 351k | $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) | SUNNY SIDE UP | |
 | Hell is Us | $49.99 | 4,279 83% | 128k | $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) | Rogue Factor | |
 | UFO 50 | $24.99 | 7,134 94% | 214k | $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) | Mossmouth | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator | $12.99 | 5,191 92% | 156k | $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) | Aluba Van+ | |
 | Alabaster Dawn | · EA | $24.99 | 2,168 94% | 65k | $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350) | Radical Fish Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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