Do I ship it?

Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Transhumanism

Only 16 developers shipped a Transhumanist Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Panthalassa, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $41k, ×87 the market median. Revenue is up 4630% on the market; 38 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 4630% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $2.1k → $1.0k → $1.9k → $32k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,795)
Top 5% $41k (exactly $41,131)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 54
Announced 38
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4630% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 97% positive over 403 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE 2020 · $6.9M while True: learn() 2019 · $2.9M USAC: Code Breach 2022 · $480k VirtuaVerse 2020 · $439k Creature Lab 2023 · $206k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
USAC: Code Breach older $14.99 1,067 91% 32k $480k (exactly $479,830) Questions Factory
VirtuaVerse older $14.99 977 81% 29k $439k (exactly $439,357) Theta Division
Creature Lab older $19.99 343 51% 10k $206k (exactly $205,697) Image Power S.A.
FixFox older $14.99 367 85% 11k $165k (exactly $165,040) Rendlike
[ECHOSTASIS] older $19.99 215 90% 6.5k $129k (exactly $128,935) ENIGMA STUDIO
Max's Big Bust 2 - Max's Bigger Bust older $29.99 59 94% 1.8k $53k (exactly $53,082) Lached Up Games
Mechanic 8230: Escape from Ilgrot older $12.99 111 90% 3.3k $43k (exactly $43,257) Nudiventra
Panthalassa $13.99 98 97% 2.9k $41k (exactly $41,131) Meia Calça
KUUKIYOMI: Consider It World - Thailand Ver. $9.99 107 98% 3.2k $32k (exactly $32,068) Urnique Studio
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
NBB.EXE $19.99 18 100% 540 $11k (exactly $10,795) Raptus Games
Alter Evo $14.99 23 95% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Technical Fiction
Project Looking Glass $4.99 47 100% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) MORPH
Runway 66 $6.99 25 88% 750 $5.2k (exactly $5,242) NEBULA NOVA GAMES
Outsider $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Galantrix
Prism: Master Tape $0.99 9 100% 270 $267 (exactly $267) XuRongzhi0x0
Soft(A)ware $18.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) B0TLANNER Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.