Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Interactive Fiction

Of 459 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 800 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×16 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×2109 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 800 games are announced against 259 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 800 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 459
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $2.9k → $1.2k → $2.7k → $1.5k → $3.1k → $1.5k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 459
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,386)
Top 5% $251k (exactly $251,011)
Developers, 2 yr 459
Released games 1,324
Announced 800
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Puzzle, Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 44,333 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 258 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 800 games are announced against 259 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension older $12.99 24,144 97% 724k $9.4M (exactly $9,408,917) Draw Me A Pixel
Gorogoa older $14.99 19,172 97% 575k $8.6M (exactly $8,621,648) Buried Signal
Little Misfortune older $19.99 11,789 92% 354k $7.1M (exactly $7,069,863) Killmonday Games AB
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
The Case of the Golden Idol older $17.99 9,794 97% 294k $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) Color Gray Games
Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs older $19.99 7,236 69% 217k $4.3M (exactly $4,339,429) The Chinese Room
Donut County older $12.99 11,038 91% 331k $4.3M (exactly $4,301,509) Ben Esposito
Killer Frequency older $24.99 5,131 93% 154k $3.8M (exactly $3,846,711) Team17
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
The Rise of the Golden Idol $19.99 3,786 92% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) Color Gray Games
The Mermaid Mask $19.99 2,776 99% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) SFB Games
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
Desktop Explorer $17.99 2,077 96% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,120,957) Recurring Dream
Kindergarten 3 $19.99 1,774 94% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,063,868) Con Man Games, Sean Young
Duck Detective: The Ghost of Glamping $9.99 2,571 96% 77k $771k (exactly $770,529) Happy Broccoli Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.