Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Life Sim?

Life Sim + Puzzle

Of 160 developers who shipped a Puzzle Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 195 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×3186 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 195 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 195 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 160
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $11k → $653 → $9.7k → $6.2k → $2.4k → $5.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 160
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,018)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,513,319)
Developers, 2 yr 160
Released games 366
Announced 195
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 188,936 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 80 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 195 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
PC Building Simulator older $19.99 42,153 93% 1.3M $25M (exactly $25,279,154) Claudiu Kiss, The Irregular Corporation
Unpacking older $19.99 35,072 93% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,032,678) Witch Beam
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
Chinese Parents older $9.99 23,168 91% 695k $6.9M (exactly $6,943,450) 墨鱼玩游戏
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Cat Mail Co. $14.99 6,289 92% 189k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,163) Maracas Studio
Whisper of the House $14.99 5,344 96% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,403,197) 元气弹工作室(GD Studio)
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Parcel Simulator $17.99 2,804 93% 84k $1.5M (exactly $1,513,319) Dansan Digital
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
Trash Goblin $19.99 1,574 87% 47k $944k (exactly $943,928) Spilt Milk Studios Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.