Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Visual Novel
Of 439 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 697 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×26 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×3341 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 697 games are announced against 256 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $624 (exactly $624) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,112) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $22,018) |
| Top 5% | $398k (exactly $397,601) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 439 |
| Released games | 1,829 |
| Announced | 697 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Puzzle, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, RPG
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 40,241 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 302 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 697 games are announced against 256 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy 2019 · $32M 
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017 · $28M 
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony 2017 · $26M 
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc 2016 · $22M 
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 2016 · $19M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy | older | $29.99 | 35,628 97% | 1.1M | $32M (exactly $32,054,512) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | What Remains of Edith Finch | older | $19.99 | 47,036 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,207,489) | Giant Sparrow |
| | Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony | older | $39.99 | 21,978 82% | 659k | $26M (exactly $26,367,007) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc | older | $19.99 | 36,194 96% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,705,542) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
| | Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair | older | $19.99 | 30,961 95% | 929k | $19M (exactly $18,567,312) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
 | The Coffin of Andy and Leyley | · EA older | $11.99 | 36,603 96% | 1.1M | $13M (exactly $13,166,099) | Kit9 Studio |
 | Firework | older | $9.99 | 41,172 97% | 1.2M | $12M (exactly $12,339,248) | Shiying Studio |
 | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | Murders on the Yangtze River | older | $14.99 | 15,833 96% | 475k | $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) | OMEGAMES STUDIO |
 | Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls | older | $29.99 | 7,405 81% | 222k | $6.7M (exactly $6,662,278) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | The Incident at Galley House | $19.99 | 4,087 94% | 123k | $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) | William Rous, Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | The Mermaid Mask | $19.99 | 2,776 99% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) | SFB Games | |
 | 月华辉映之刻 | $11.99 | 4,227 89% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) | 侠客狗工作室 | |
 | Train45 | $10.99 | 3,823 97% | 115k | $1.3M (exactly $1,260,443) | Elniko | |
 | Love is All Around 2 | $9.99 | 3,749 83% | 112k | $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) | intiny | |
 | Desktop Explorer | $17.99 | 2,077 96% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,120,957) | Recurring Dream | |
 | SHUTEN ORDER | $49.99 | 712 80% | 21k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) | Neilo Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.