Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Puzzle game?

Investigation + Puzzle

Of 686 developers who shipped an Investigation Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,101 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×892 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 1,101 games are announced against 400 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 1,101 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 686
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $2.4k → $1.8k → $2.8k → $2.1k → $1.7k → $1.4k (still earning) → $838 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 686
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,793)
Top 5% $424k (exactly $423,580)
Developers, 2 yr 686
Released games 1,985
Announced 1,101
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Point & Click
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 108,224 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 374 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,101 games are announced against 400 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter older $29.99 12,076 80% 362k $11M (exactly $10,864,777) Frogwares
Escape Simulator older $19.99 16,496 94% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,892,651) Pine Studio
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Strange Horticulture older $15.99 14,867 94% 446k $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) Bad Viking
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
Bugsnax older $24.99 8,673 97% 260k $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) Young Horses
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
Escape Simulator 2 $19.99 4,292 92% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,573,912) Pine Studio
The Incident at Galley House $19.99 4,087 94% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) William Rous, Evil Trout Inc.
The Rise of the Golden Idol $19.99 3,786 92% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) Color Gray Games
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.