Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle JRPG?

JRPG + Puzzle

Of 88 developers who shipped a Puzzle JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×231 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 143 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 143 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.1k → $3.3k → $2.0k → $1.9k → $719 (still earning) → $657 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,064)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,397)
Top 5% $145k (exactly $145,253)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 471
Announced 143
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 9,237 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster 2016 · $18M CrossCode 2018 · $9.8M Word Game 2022 · $6.2M Mirror 2018 · $4.3M Rakuen 2017 · $2.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster older $29.99 19,857 87% 596k $18M (exactly $17,865,343) Square Enix
CrossCode older $19.99 16,376 92% 491k $9.8M (exactly $9,820,687) Radical Fish Games
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Mirror older $1.99 72,623 96% 2.2M $4.3M (exactly $4,335,593) KAGAMI WORKS
Rakuen older $14.99 4,699 96% 141k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,140) Laura Shigihara
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
Tales of the Black Forest older $3.99 14,789 97% 444k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,243) 拾英工作室
Alabaster Dawn · EA $24.99 2,168 94% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350) Radical Fish Games
OFF $14.99 3,093 95% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) Mortis Ghost, Fangamer
Evoland older $9.99 4,577 83% 137k $1.4M (exactly $1,371,727) Shiro Games
Demonschool $24.99 984 91% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems
Wagotabi: A Japanese Journey $9.99 1,543 98% 46k $462k (exactly $462,437) Wagotabi Limited
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Adventures of HILLS $14.99 323 82% 9.7k $145k (exactly $145,253) PantyParrot
Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy DX $39.99 110 85% 3.3k $132k (exactly $131,967) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key DX $39.99 102 80% 3.1k $122k (exactly $122,369) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Flowstone Saga $17.99 172 81% 5.2k $93k (exactly $92,828) Impact Gameworks
Under the River $5.99 485 95% 15k $87k (exactly $87,154) 夜火游戏（Night Fire Game）

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.