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Should I ship a Puzzle Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Puzzle
Of 55 developers who shipped a Puzzle Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×468 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 69 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,248) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,244) |
| Top 5% | $294k (exactly $293,597) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 55 |
| Released games | 303 |
| Announced | 69 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 8,177 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster | older | $29.99 | 19,857 87% | 596k | $18M (exactly $17,865,343) | Square Enix |
| | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Into the Breach | older | $14.99 | 19,000 94% | 570k | $8.5M (exactly $8,544,300) | Subset Games |
| | Fate Seeker | older | $21.09 | 11,930 90% | 358k | $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) | JSL Entertainment |
| | Tactical Breach Wizards | older | $19.99 | 11,485 97% | 345k | $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) | Suspicious Developments |
| | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
| | West of Loathing | older | $10.99 | 9,716 97% | 291k | $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) | Asymmetric |
| | The Legend of Bum-Bo | older | $14.99 | 5,654 80% | 170k | $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) | Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon) |
| | Niche - a genetics survival game | older | $17.99 | 4,356 88% | 131k | $2.4M (exactly $2,350,933) | Stray Fawn Studio |
| | Legend of Grimrock 2 | older | $23.99 | 3,065 90% | 92k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,880) | Almost Human Games |
| | Sol Cesto | $13.99 | 4,838 91% | 145k | $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) | Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale) | |
| | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
| | Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX | $39.99 | 257 76% | 7.7k | $308k (exactly $308,323) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | MINOS | $17.99 | 544 88% | 16k | $294k (exactly $293,597) | Artificer | |
| | The Conquest of Go | $14.99 | 581 94% | 17k | $261k (exactly $261,276) | Wolfey Studios | |
| | Turnbound | $14.99 | 446 78% | 13k | $201k (exactly $200,566) | 1TK | |
| | Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy DX | $39.99 | 110 85% | 3.3k | $132k (exactly $131,967) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key DX | $39.99 | 102 80% | 3.1k | $122k (exactly $122,369) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Tactical Takedown | $19.99 | 160 89% | 4.8k | $96k (exactly $95,952) | Strange Scaffold | |
| | River Towns | $14.99 | 184 89% | 5.5k | $83k (exactly $82,745) | Frogsong Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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