Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Puzzle

Of 55 developers who shipped a Puzzle Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×468 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 69 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $2.4k → $37k → $53k → $7.2k → $2.2k → $1.6k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,244)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $293,597)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 303
Announced 69
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 8,177 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster older $29.99 19,857 87% 596k $18M (exactly $17,865,343) Square Enix
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Into the Breach older $14.99 19,000 94% 570k $8.5M (exactly $8,544,300) Subset Games
Fate Seeker older $21.09 11,930 90% 358k $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) JSL Entertainment
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
West of Loathing older $10.99 9,716 97% 291k $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) Asymmetric
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
Niche - a genetics survival game older $17.99 4,356 88% 131k $2.4M (exactly $2,350,933) Stray Fawn Studio
Legend of Grimrock 2 older $23.99 3,065 90% 92k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,880) Almost Human Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
MINOS $17.99 544 88% 16k $294k (exactly $293,597) Artificer
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy DX $39.99 110 85% 3.3k $132k (exactly $131,967) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key DX $39.99 102 80% 3.1k $122k (exactly $122,369) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Tactical Takedown $19.99 160 89% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Strange Scaffold
River Towns $14.99 184 89% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) Frogsong Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.