Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Puzzle game?

Puzzle + LGBTQ+

Of 133 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 183 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×16 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×5680 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 183 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 183 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 133
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $11k → $4.9k → $716 → $1.3k → $2.3k → $3.3k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 133
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,872)
Top 5% $676k (exactly $675,862)
Developers, 2 yr 133
Released games 662
Announced 183
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 32,397 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 130 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 183 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy older $29.99 35,628 97% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,054,512) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Unpacking older $19.99 35,072 93% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,032,678) Witch Beam
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
Bugsnax older $24.99 8,673 97% 260k $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) Young Horses
The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles older $39.99 5,113 93% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Five Nights at Freddy's: Help Wanted 2 older $39.99 5,092 94% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,108,872) Steel Wool Studios
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
The Red Strings Club older $14.99 12,797 93% 384k $5.8M (exactly $5,754,811) Deconstructeam
Sorry We're Closed $24.99 1,643 98% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,757) à la mode games
Squeakross: Home Squeak Home $14.99 2,045 98% 61k $920k (exactly $919,636) Alblune
Great God Grove $19.99 1,381 98% 41k $828k (exactly $828,186) LimboLane
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Third Crisis: Neon Nights · EA $19.99 1,127 92% 34k $676k (exactly $675,862) Anduo Games
Thrifty Business $12.99 1,228 97% 37k $479k (exactly $478,552) Spellgarden Games
Urban Jungle $11.99 667 90% 20k $240k (exactly $239,920) KYLYK
Methods: The Canada Files $19.99 299 94% 9.0k $179k (exactly $179,310) LockedOn Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.