Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery game?

Mystery

Of 3,701 developers who shipped a Mystery game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,566 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×527 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 6,566 games are announced against 2,196 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 6,566 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,701
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.4k → $2.2k → $2.2k → $2.0k → $1.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,701
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.2k (exactly $9,217)
Top 5% $250k (exactly $250,400)
Developers, 2 yr 3,701
Released games 10,533
Announced 6,566
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 672,104 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 2,017 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,566 games are announced against 2,196 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Mystery

139 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Roguelike + Mystery Poor odds $599 148 devs
  2. Action RPG + Mystery Poor odds $599 138 devs
  3. Action Roguelike + Mystery Poor odds $599 87 devs
  4. Collectathon + Mystery Poor odds $599 80 devs
  5. Third-Person Shooter + Mystery Poor odds $599 51 devs
  6. Real Time Tactics + Mystery Poor odds $599 33 devs
  7. Sokoban + Mystery Poor odds $599 23 devs
  8. Strategy + Mystery Poor odds $538 363 devs
  9. Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery Poor odds $538 57 devs
  10. Tabletop + Mystery Poor odds $538 32 devs
  11. 3D Platformer + Mystery Poor odds $480 184 devs
  12. Dungeon Crawler + Mystery Poor odds $480 138 devs
  13. Class-Based + Mystery Poor odds $479 17 devs
  14. Party Game + Mystery Poor odds $419 32 devs
  15. 3D Fighter + Mystery Poor odds $150 10 devs
  16. Open World Survival Craft + Mystery Dead $26k 6 devs
  17. City Builder + Mystery Dead $4.6k 9 devs
  18. Swordplay + Mystery Dead $3.3k 10 devs
  19. God Game + Mystery Dead $3.1k 7 devs
  20. Hero Shooter + Mystery Dead $1.4k 8 devs
  21. Rhythm + Mystery Dead $1.3k 5 devs
  22. Beat 'em up + Mystery Dead $959 14 devs
  23. Racing + Mystery Dead $449 16 devs
  24. Match 3 + Mystery Dead $390 8 devs
  25. Perma Death + Mystery Dead $359 70 devs
  26. Bullet Hell + Mystery Dead $359 55 devs
  27. Precision Platformer + Mystery Dead $358 63 devs
  28. Mystery Dungeon + Mystery Dead $300 115 devs
  29. Looter Shooter + Mystery Dead $300 11 devs
  30. Arcade + Mystery Dead $299 145 devs
  31. Tactical + Mystery Dead $298 65 devs
  32. Score Attack + Mystery Dead $239 28 devs
  33. Solitaire + Mystery Dead $239 21 devs
  34. Runner + Mystery Dead $238 36 devs
  35. Shoot 'Em Up + Mystery Dead $150 24 devs
  36. Tower Defense + Mystery Dead $150 18 devs
  37. Arena Shooter + Mystery Dead $120 19 devs
  38. Flight + Mystery Dead $90 6 devs
  39. 2D Fighter + Mystery Dead $30 12 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M Stray 2022 · $142M DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Outer Wilds older $24.99 89,506 95% 2.7M $67M (exactly $67,102,648) Mobius Digital
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
REANIMAL $39.99 13,809 78% 414k $17M (exactly $16,566,657) Tarsier Studios
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
MECCHA CHAMELEON $5.99 78,746 87% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,150,656) lemorion_1224
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.