Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Mystery

Of 115 developers who shipped a Mystery Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 58 developers shipped in the last year and 110 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 110 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $958 → $479 → $540 → $358 → $479 → $239 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 269
Announced 110
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,914 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. Nearly all of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
The Classrooms · EA older $12.99 3,040 89% 91k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,688) Xefier Games, Hillcrest Games Inc.
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
Hourglass older $19.99 331 88% 9.9k $199k (exactly $198,501) Cyberwave
Unmourned $24.99 258 79% 7.7k $193k (exactly $193,423) Codebros Studio
Embers Adrift $19.99 240 69% 7.2k $144k (exactly $143,928) Stormhaven Studios
Caves of Lore older $9.99 408 93% 12k $122k (exactly $122,278) by Mike Robins
Firelight Fantasy: Vengeance older $13.99 142 79% 4.3k $60k (exactly $59,597) Quacky Games
Somewhere in the Shadow older $2.99 579 80% 17k $52k (exactly $51,936) Aydy, Nikolay Kulesh
Forbidden Art older $14.99 96 91% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) AIXLAB
Alisa's Grimoire $16.99 77 87% 2.3k $39k (exactly $39,247) Circle Kurasuke Warehouse
Sudoku Mansion $14.99 69 98% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Vault Door Studios
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
The Strange Story Of Brian Fisher: Chapter 2 $14.99 34 94% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Intetic
Abyss: New Dawn · EA $24.99 19 63% 570 $14k (exactly $14,244) Aloya Productions
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.