Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Mystery

Only 5 developers shipped a Mystery Rhythm game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Game Over - A Musical RPG??, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×19 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.3k against a market of $480. 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 38 announced, ×19 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Rhythm + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 26
Announced 38
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,681 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $8.0k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 38 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×19 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SPOOKWARE older $4.99 709 79% 21k $106k (exactly $106,137) BEESWAX GAMES
Secret of the Magic Crystals older $4.99 640 79% 19k $96k (exactly $95,808) Artery Games
ATONE: Heart of the Elder Tree older $14.99 91 87% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Wildboy Studios
Future Racer 2000 older $4.99 111 92% 3.3k $17k (exactly $16,617) Tim Oxton
PYTHIAN · EA older $17.99 30 73% 900 $16k (exactly $16,191) VRROOM, ART OF DANCE
In Her Eyes older $9.99 54 77% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) NotDeadLuna Studio
Game Over - A Musical RPG?? $14.99 18 100% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Jake Houston
DISHARMONY older $6.99 18 72% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) Lukas "Dash" Sivertsson, Boot… (Lukas "Dash" Sivertsson, Boot-Cat Studio)
RHYTHMIC · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Polar Studios Robin Kammel
May's Mysteries: The Secret of Dragonville Remastered older $9.99 5 60% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) V5 Play
The Forgotten Villages of Gondomayit 2 - Kost Karangsari older $9.99 5 40% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) PT. Abadi Berkarya Indonesia
LightBreak $5.99 7 100% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Deev Interactive
Lastgirl Survivor $1.99 3 33% 90 $179 (exactly $179) DDMINI
Survivors SymphonYs $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Surfin Bird

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.