Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Mystery

Only 17 developers shipped a Mystery Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deadlock Station, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 1245% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 1245% on the market, 40 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $1.1k → $208 → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $16,484)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 41
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1245% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 160 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $16k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Crystal Project older $13.99 2,510 91% 75k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,447) Andrew Willman
Black Legend older $19.99 172 62% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Warcave
My life as an archeologist older $3.99 322 88% 9.7k $39k (exactly $38,543) Delirium Tremens Games
Undeadly older $14.99 45 66% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Irreflex Studios
Deadlock Station $9.99 55 80% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Luxorix Games
Fantasy Empires older $9.99 33 84% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Silicon Knights
No More Demon · EA $12.99 16 87% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) Mundus Games
DEATHMARK · EA $4.99 35 91% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Wired Creations Studio
Unwanted Dungeon $7.99 18 88% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Conrado Saud, Conrado Saud
Passageway of the Ancients $7.99 17 58% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Passageway Games
Legends of Celestite RPG: The All Bearer $14.99 5 100% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Raven Burns
RAD: Repeat After Death $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Exploding Soes
Christmas Fables: The Wishing Store Collector's Edition $8.99 4 50% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Do Games Limited
Mythic Ascendancy $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Orchigal
Cave of the Skinwalker $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Linky Enterprises

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.