Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Mystery

Of 33 developers who shipped a Mystery Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×383 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 43 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.7k → $210 → $3.4k → $899 → $150 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,033)
Top 5% $240k (exactly $240,359)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 71
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Survival
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 79,935 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MECCHA CHAMELEON $5.99 78,746 87% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,150,656) lemorion_1224
At Dead Of Night older $15.99 3,289 94% 99k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,733) Baggy Cat Ltd.
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
JARS older $11.99 104 71% 3.1k $37k (exactly $37,409) Mousetrap Games
Smilers Den Deluxxx $6.99 160 84% 4.8k $34k (exactly $33,552) MikiY
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
Wonhon: A Vengeful Spirit older $9.99 71 66% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) BUSAN SANAI GAMES
Deadlock Station $9.99 55 80% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Luxorix Games
Dungeons Of The Deep older $14.99 22 59% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Gray Mantis
Fantasy Empires older $9.99 33 84% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Silicon Knights
The HELL · EA $9.99 30 73% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) METROPOLICE
SPELLHACK!! $5.99 46 91% 1.4k $8.3k (exactly $8,266) Computer Dream
Expedition: Shadow World $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Pavel Tanonov
CoinPit $6.99 24 66% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Trollix Games
Climber Girl $7.99 19 36% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) AlterLab Development

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.