Do I ship it?

Games › Shoot 'Em Up › Shoot 'Em Up + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Mystery

Of 24 developers who shipped a Mystery Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $898 → $1.4k → $60 → $150 → $300 → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $599 (exactly $599)
Top 5% $6.2k (exactly $6,235)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 77
Announced 40
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 129 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $6.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

OTXO 2023 · $1.5M HEARTSHOT 2024 · EA · $120k Dinosis Survival 2017 · $52k Thy Creature 2022 · $52k Monster Bash HD 2021 · $27k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
HEARTSHOT · EA older $14.99 267 59% 8.0k $120k (exactly $120,070) Meadow Studios
Dinosis Survival older $5.99 291 55% 8.7k $52k (exactly $52,293) Corpix Games
Thy Creature older $19.99 86 79% 2.6k $52k (exactly $51,574) Growing Seeds
Monster Bash HD older $9.99 91 95% 2.7k $27k (exactly $27,273) Emberheart Games
Project Tower $9.99 76 75% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Yummy Games
Kamikaze Lassplanes older $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) Inky Dreams
No More Demon · EA $12.99 16 87% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) Mundus Games
Lulu's Temple older $4.99 39 82% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Agelvik
Darker Skies: Remastered for PC older $11.99 16 68% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Steel Arts Software Ltd.
Nauts $8.99 10 100% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Jorge A. García González, Carlos Álvare… (Jorge A. García González, Carlos Álvarez-Nava González)
Rotschwert $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Winged Fox
Armed Animals RPG $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) Strejda Jenda Productions
Find Oann $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Ahldain Michael
Final District $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Owlfig Games
Ashes Remember Us · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) indiegates
Mortal Mythos: Island of Fairies $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Timur Bondar
Dankenstoned’s Bongster’s Gram Smoker’s Stankula $1.99 5 80% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Finnsoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.