Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Strategy game?

Strategy + Mystery

Of 363 developers who shipped a Mystery Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 648 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×346 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 648 games are announced against 208 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 648 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 363
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $900 → $718 → $1.0k → $599 → $599 → $599 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 363
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,453)
Developers, 2 yr 363
Released games 990
Announced 648
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 104,967 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 192 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 648 games are announced against 208 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M Blue Prince 2025 · $16M Revenge on gold diggers 2025 · $9.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 older $7.99 23,871 93% 716k $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) Scott Cawthon
The Wild Eight older $24.99 6,646 69% 199k $5.0M (exactly $4,982,506) Eight Points
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Techtonica $29.99 3,076 64% 92k $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) Fire Hose Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
Orb of Creation $11.99 2,167 84% 65k $779k (exactly $779,470) MarpleGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.