Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Mystery

Of 87 developers who shipped a Mystery Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 158 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×695 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 158 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 158 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $89 → $1.8k → $240 → $1.7k → $269 → $898 (still earning) → $213 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $330k (exactly $330,113)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 175
Announced 158
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 313,297 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 158 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

PEAK 2025 · $72M Content Warning 2024 · $17M KLETKA 2026 · $1.9M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Withering Rooms 2024 · $906k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
KLETKA $9.99 6,374 90% 191k $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) Callback, ln404
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Withering Rooms older $24.99 1,209 96% 36k $906k (exactly $906,387) Moonless Formless
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
UnderMine 2 · EA $19.99 828 75% 25k $497k (exactly $496,552) Thorium
ORDER 13 $8.99 1,224 87% 37k $330k (exactly $330,113) Cybernetic Walrus
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
CAPTURED 2 $7.99 564 99% 17k $135k (exactly $135,191) Puck Redflix
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Ragnar $14.99 61 83% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Fimbulwinter Games
Ammo and Oxygen $14.99 53 64% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Juvty Worlds

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.