Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Mystery

Of 70 developers who shipped a Mystery Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 36 developers shipped in the last year and 98 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 98 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $898 → $838 → $449 → $359 → $449 → $898 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $155k (exactly $155,322)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 136
Announced 98
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 6,547 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Until Dawn™ 2024 · $6.4M Five Nights at Freddy's 2 2014 · $5.7M ALTF4 2021 · $848k SILENT BREATH 2026 · $337k MOLDRISE 2026 · $175k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 older $7.99 23,871 93% 716k $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) Scott Cawthon
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
SILENT BREATH $9.99 1,124 67% 34k $337k (exactly $336,863) EXODIAC STUDIOS
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Black Legend older $19.99 172 62% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Warcave
Dreadhalls older $9.99 334 93% 10k $100k (exactly $100,100) White Door Games
THE LAST TRAIN: Baquedano $7.99 307 91% 9.2k $74k (exactly $73,588) Matías Avilés
Door in the Woods older $9.99 242 78% 7.3k $73k (exactly $72,527) teedoubleuGAMES
Make Good Choices $2.99 556 88% 17k $50k (exactly $49,873) TN Games
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
Ammo and Oxygen $14.99 53 64% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Juvty Worlds
Encounter: The Lost Cards $12.99 38 68% 1.1k $15k (exactly $14,809) Salvatore Grosso
Liminal Exit $4.99 91 69% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) LittleRedDread

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.