Do I ship it?

Games › Tactical › Tactical + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Tactical game?

Tactical + Mystery

Of 65 developers who shipped a Mystery Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 39 developers shipped in the last year and 110 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 110 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $148 → $419 → $599 → $1.1k → $539 → $899 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $298 (exactly $298)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $233k (exactly $232,567)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 175
Announced 110
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Dark, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 10,442 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M Demonologist 2023 · $11M Tactical Breach Wizards 2024 · $6.9M Town of Salem 2014 · $4.6M ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version $29.99 2,315 96% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) KONAMI
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
At Dead Of Night older $15.99 3,289 94% 99k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,733) Baggy Cat Ltd.
Crystal Project older $13.99 2,510 91% 75k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,447) Andrew Willman
Demonschool $24.99 984 91% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems
METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version $19.99 925 79% 28k $555k (exactly $554,722) KONAMI
Project Unknown $9.99 776 81% 23k $233k (exactly $232,567) PsychoRavens
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Tactical Takedown $19.99 160 89% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Strange Scaffold
Echo Generation 2 $24.99 41 73% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Cococucumber
Deadly Quiet $9.75 89 55% 2.7k $26k (exactly $26,032) Tarba Paul Cornel, Abdul Rafy
Deadlock Station $9.99 55 80% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Luxorix Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.