Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery

Of 57 developers who shipped a Mystery Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×232 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 121 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 121 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $1.3k → $719 → $897 → $479 → $539 → $987 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 5% $146k (exactly $145,954)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 144
Announced 121
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 4,005 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
Escape from Ever After $24.99 1,537 96% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,289) Sleepy Castle Studio, Wing-It! Creative
Demonschool $24.99 984 91% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems
Dragon Star Varnir older $39.99 453 78% 14k $543k (exactly $543,464) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Wintermoor Tactics Club older $14.99 538 87% 16k $242k (exactly $241,939) EVC Games
Mohism: Battle of Words older $9.99 570 76% 17k $171k (exactly $170,829) 玄镜工作室
Invincible Presents: Atom Eve older $9.99 550 96% 17k $165k (exactly $164,835) Terrible Posture Games
The Succession of Changing Kings $9.99 487 86% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) KwaKwaGames
Deified · EA $14.99 281 96% 8.4k $126k (exactly $126,366) Unexpected
Rina's Undercover Train Operation $13.99 286 70% 8.6k $120k (exactly $120,034) Metamorphose
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Tactical Takedown $19.99 160 89% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Strange Scaffold
THE SPIRIT LIFT $19.99 118 94% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) prettysmart games
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
Dissimilar $18.99 29 89% 870 $17k (exactly $16,521) Opal Grave Games
RECORD_DrowsyVortex $9.99 54 100% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) LunarHillz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.