Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Arcade game?

Arcade + Mystery

Of 145 developers who shipped a Mystery Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 185 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 87 developers shipped in the last year and 185 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 185 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 145
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $150 → $896 → $240 → $239 → $479 → $479 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 145
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $2,030)
Top 5% $34k (exactly $33,552)
Developers, 2 yr 145
Released games 386
Announced 185
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,265 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $33k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 185 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
RATSHAKER™ $2.99 3,011 92% 90k $270k (exactly $270,087) Sunscorched Studios
SchoolBoy Runaway $1.99 3,731 90% 112k $223k (exactly $222,741) Linked Squad
Shower With Your Dad Simulator 2015: Do You Still Shower With Your Dad older $0.99 7,239 95% 217k $215k (exactly $214,998) marbenx
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
Computer Repair Shop older $9.99 562 66% 17k $168k (exactly $168,431) Cheesecake Dev
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Summer Catchers older $8.99 347 80% 10k $94k (exactly $93,586) FaceIT
Creepy Tale: Snow Child $11.99 248 91% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Creepy Brothers
Death In Abyss $19.99 146 82% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) Agelvik
The Biggleboss Incident $7.99 188 92% 5.6k $45k (exactly $45,064) BUNKWORKS
Smilers Den Deluxxx $6.99 160 84% 4.8k $34k (exactly $33,552) MikiY
Origament: A Paper Adventure $9.99 76 90% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Space Sauce Studio
Lost and found - What if I come and find it $15.99 36 88% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,269) Gadir Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.