Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Mystery

Only 10 developers shipped a Mystery 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kromlech, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150, ×0.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 125% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 23 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $119 → $150
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $122k (exactly $122,359)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 36
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 60% positive over 198 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Cobra Kai 2: Dojos Rising older $49.99 71 42% 2.1k $106k (exactly $106,479) Flux Games
Spider Queen cave older $18.99 159 40% 4.8k $91k (exactly $90,582) 帅宅快乐屋
Firelight Fantasy: Vengeance older $13.99 142 79% 4.3k $60k (exactly $59,597) Quacky Games
Omen of Sorrow older $19.99 39 74% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) AOne Games
Project Three · EA $7.99 39 23% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) The Only Way Out
VR Immortal Fight older $4.99 26 84% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Saturn VR, NipsApp Game Studios
Save Daddy Trump 3: Rise Of Evil older $4.99 24 79% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, NTStudi… (Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, NTStudios, Blackthug)
Cat Life · EA older $8.90 11 72% 330 $2.9k (exactly $2,937) RedMoon Studio
Zilar: Empire Of The Underground $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Sthard Game
Ars Vox Arcana · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) CoralHeavens
The Christopher Redemption - I $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Secernate Games Private Limited
BlackLaceAssassins $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) VirtualDelightsPro
PUP BOY COWBOY: Infinite Desert Edition $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) JaVaRwY, VGSharp
Mystic Origins $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Matthew Lalande
SETVR XL-Unleashed $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Suffescom Solutions Inc.
Quantum Lotto Machine $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Quantum Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.