Do I ship it?

GamesGod GameGod Game + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery God Game?

God Game + Mystery

Only 7 developers shipped a Mystery God Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, İblis3:Phenomena, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.1k against a market of $630. 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 22 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
God Game + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for God Game + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,332)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,104)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,473)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $98,204)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 31
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

God Game
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
God Game
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 2,815 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

God Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair19 devs · median $12k · 28 announced
  2. + EconomyFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  3. + PuzzleFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  4. + Inventory ManagementFair16 devs · median $1.1k · 15 announced
  5. + DestructionFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  6. + DystopianFair14 devs · median $898 · 10 announced
  7. + IdlerFair91 devs · median $839 · 95 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair79 devs · median $807 · 71 announced
  9. + ArcadeLong shot17 devs · median $390 · 20 announced
  10. + Farming SimLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  11. + AgricultureLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $28k · 77 announced

All 96 pairs on the God Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Paper Beast older $19.99 529 94% 16k $317k (exactly $317,241) Pixel Reef
iBLiS older $9.99 687 41% 21k $206k (exactly $205,894) Bulut ULU
Spectral Scream older $9.99 654 78% 20k $196k (exactly $196,004) STOIC Ent.
Paper Beast - Folded Edition older $16.99 195 85% 5.9k $99k (exactly $99,391) Pixel Reef
İblis3:Phenomena $12.99 252 56% 7.6k $98k (exactly $98,204) Bulut ULU
Last Light older $15.99 161 81% 4.8k $77k (exactly $77,232) Team Corn Field
İBLİS2:sorcery older $7.99 122 36% 3.7k $29k (exactly $29,243) Bulut ULU
Chaperone older $5.99 78 64% 2.3k $14k (exactly $14,017) Bulut ULU
Hideko $4.99 90 97% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,473) Sokpop Collective
Shadows Behind the Throne 2 older $7.99 47 76% 1.4k $11k (exactly $11,266) Bobby Two Hands
Feed the Greed $2.99 68 73% 2.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,100) Elifam
NABI $1.99 52 61% 1.6k $3.1k (exactly $3,104) Fancysquare
Separium: 12th Elevator $8.88 5 100% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,332) ptpearl
Alchemy Laboratory: Simulator $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Afk Pixel Studio
cozy cult $0.99 5 60% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Just Will Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.