Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Roguelike?

Roguelike + Mystery

Of 148 developers who shipped a Mystery Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 264 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×266 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 264 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 264 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 148
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $2.5k → $449 → $1.5k → $838 → $628 → $987 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 148
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,852)
Top 5% $126k (exactly $126,366)
Developers, 2 yr 148
Released games 252
Announced 264
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 33,721 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 264 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
KLETKA $9.99 6,374 90% 191k $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) Callback, ln404
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
UnderMine 2 · EA $19.99 828 75% 25k $497k (exactly $496,552) Thorium
Iris and the Giant older $17.99 698 87% 21k $377k (exactly $376,711) Louis Rigaud
NO-SKIN $6.99 1,227 95% 37k $257k (exactly $257,302) NoEye-Soft
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Deified · EA $14.99 281 96% 8.4k $126k (exactly $126,366) Unexpected
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Eternal Afternoon $8.99 446 95% 13k $120k (exactly $120,286) Alex Klexber

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.