Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Mystery

Of 184 developers who shipped a Mystery 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 284 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×185 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 284 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 284 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 184
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $718 → $599 → $538 → $987 → $539 → $360 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 184
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $480 (exactly $480)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 5% $116k (exactly $116,204)
Developers, 2 yr 184
Released games 506
Announced 284
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 6,722 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $480, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 113 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 284 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Exo One older $16.99 5,053 89% 152k $2.6M (exactly $2,575,514) Exbleative
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
Contrast older $9.99 4,548 90% 136k $1.4M (exactly $1,363,036) Compulsion Games
Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered $29.99 1,507 89% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
SLUDGE LIFE older $14.99 1,900 95% 57k $854k (exactly $854,430) Terri Vellmann, Doseone
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Gecko Gods $19.99 629 96% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Inresin
Europa $14.99 778 85% 23k $350k (exactly $349,867) Helder Pinto, Chozabu (Alex PB), Novadu… (Helder Pinto, Chozabu (Alex PB), Novadust Entertainment)
Winion Virus $10.99 980 94% 29k $323k (exactly $323,106) Dawntown Studio
Hypogea $9.99 817 97% 25k $245k (exactly $244,855) Charlie Wagner
Zefyr: A Thief's Melody $19.99 401 96% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Oneiric Worlds
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Pieces of me $8.99 594 87% 18k $160k (exactly $160,202) EMIKA_GAMES
Gloomy Eyes $24.99 155 94% 4.7k $116k (exactly $116,204) Atlas V, Be Revolution Gaming, 3Dar, Fi… (Atlas V, Be Revolution Gaming, 3Dar, Fishing Cactus, ARTE France)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.