Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot game?

Loot

Of 1,012 developers who shipped a Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,916 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1287 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 1,916 games are announced against 673 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 1,916 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,012
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $3.9k → $5.1k → $3.9k → $2.1k → $2.9k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,012
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,422)
Top 5% $808k (exactly $807,931)
Developers, 2 yr 1,012
Released games 2,421
Announced 1,916
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 463,340 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 421 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,916 games are announced against 673 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Loot

38 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Loot + Artificial Intelligence Strong odds $19k 28 devs
  2. Loot + Steampunk Strong odds $2.2k 7 devs
  3. Loot + Capitalism Fair $14k 36 devs
  4. Loot + Cats Fair $3.4k 17 devs
  5. Loot + Psychological Horror Fair $718 28 devs
  6. Loot + Supernatural Fair $537 21 devs
  7. Loot + Mechs Poor odds $25k 13 devs
  8. Loot + Dystopian Poor odds $15k 12 devs
  9. Loot + Military Poor odds $14k 26 devs
  10. Loot + Martial Arts Poor odds $14k 13 devs
  11. Loot + Dragons Poor odds $10k 28 devs
  12. Loot + War Poor odds $7.2k 18 devs
  13. Loot + Gothic Poor odds $7.2k 10 devs
  14. Loot + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $6.5k 69 devs
  15. Loot + Futuristic Poor odds $6.5k 29 devs
  16. Loot + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.4k 142 devs
  17. Loot + Sci-fi Poor odds $6.3k 120 devs
  18. Loot + Robots Poor odds $5.4k 18 devs
  19. Loot + Zombies Poor odds $4.8k 63 devs
  20. Loot + Cyberpunk Poor odds $3.6k 19 devs
  21. Loot + Female Protagonist Poor odds $3.4k 50 devs
  22. Loot + Space Poor odds $3.1k 46 devs
  23. Loot + Horror Poor odds $3.1k 90 devs
  24. Loot + Medieval Poor odds $3.0k 133 devs
  25. Loot + Underground Poor odds $2.9k 37 devs
  26. Loot + Pirates Poor odds $2.8k 16 devs
  27. Loot + Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 392 devs
  28. Loot + Magic Poor odds $2.4k 184 devs
  29. Loot + Heist Poor odds $2.4k 16 devs
  30. Loot + Demons Poor odds $2.4k 51 devs
  31. Loot + Mythology Poor odds $2.3k 40 devs
  32. Loot + Modern Poor odds $2.2k 15 devs
  33. Loot + Mystery Poor odds $2.2k 38 devs
  34. Loot + Historical Poor odds $2.2k 21 devs
  35. Loot + Aliens Poor odds $1.8k 24 devs
  36. Loot + Nature Poor odds $1.2k 38 devs
  37. Loot + Crime Poor odds $898 11 devs
  38. Loot + Alternate History Poor odds $599 13 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M Borderlands 3 2020 · $230M Risk of Rain 2 2020 · $180M Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M Borderlands 2 2012 · $126M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.