Do I ship it?

Games › Loot › Loot + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Loot game?

Loot + Mystery

Of 38 developers who shipped a Mystery Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1864 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 92 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 92 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $3.9k → $4.8k → $599 → $2.2k → $5.4k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,128)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 86
Announced 92
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 28,734 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand 2023 · $3.3M A Game About Digging A Hole™ 2025 · $2.8M Total Chaos 2025 · $1.2M Murky Divers 2024 · $1.1M HexBreaker Ⅱ 2026 · $629k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand older $39.99 2,773 74% 83k $3.3M (exactly $3,326,768) Deck13
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
Murky Divers $8.99 3,981 87% 119k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) Embers
HexBreaker Ⅱ $19.99 1,049 64% 31k $629k (exactly $629,085) 灵煦工作室
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Thick As Thieves $4.99 1,106 65% 33k $166k (exactly $165,568) OtherSide Entertainment
Embers Adrift $19.99 240 69% 7.2k $144k (exactly $143,928) Stormhaven Studios
Into Black $29.99 125 87% 3.8k $112k (exactly $112,462) The Binary Mill
[DE:]Fanastasis older $19.99 177 96% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Mosamosa
Dustland · EA $22.99 100 69% 3.0k $69k (exactly $68,970) RedPad Games
Drill and Delve $8.99 108 87% 3.2k $29k (exactly $29,128) noOne

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.