Should I ship a Sci-fi Loot game?
Loot + Sci-fi
Of 120 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 241 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1879 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 241 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) |
| Top 25% | $56k (exactly $55,772) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,180,210) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 120 |
| Released games | 281 |
| Announced | 241 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 117,985 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 241 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds
- + Local Co-OpStrong odds
- + SteampunkStrong odds
- + CapitalismFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + JRPGFair
- + EconomyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + CatsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + CollectathonFair
Comparable games
Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M 
Borderlands 2 2012 · $126M 
Borderlands 4 2025 · $122M 
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel 2014 · $38M 
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr 2018 · $29M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Deep Rock Galactic | older | $29.99 | 303,142 97% | 9.1M | $273M (exactly $272,736,857) | Ghost Ship Games |
| | Borderlands 2 | older | $19.99 | 210,364 89% | 6.3M | $126M (exactly $126,155,291) | Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
| | Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel | older | $39.99 | 31,771 79% | 953k | $38M (exactly $38,115,669) | 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr | older | $49.99 | 19,552 75% | 587k | $29M (exactly $29,322,134) | NeocoreGames |
 | OUTRIDERS | older | $19.99 | 46,146 66% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $27,673,756) | People Can Fly |
 | Far Far West | · EA | $19.99 | 31,458 95% | 944k | $19M (exactly $18,865,363) | Evil Raptor |
 | EVERSPACE™ 2 | older | $49.99 | 12,040 85% | 361k | $18M (exactly $18,056,388) | ROCKFISH Games |
 | Borderlands Game of the Year Enhanced | older | $29.99 | 18,217 81% | 547k | $16M (exactly $16,389,835) | Gearbox Software, Blind Squirrel Games |
 | Deadzone: Rogue | $24.99 | 15,041 82% | 451k | $11M (exactly $11,276,238) | Prophecy Games | |
 | Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion | $69.99 | 1,838 63% | 55k | $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) | Marvelous Inc. | |
 | R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program | $14.99 | 2,727 76% | 82k | $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) | WarmCore Studio | |
 | Neon Abyss 2 | · EA | $19.99 | 1,968 68% | 59k | $1.2M (exactly $1,180,210) | Veewo Games |
 | Murky Divers | $8.99 | 3,981 87% | 119k | $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) | Embers | |
 | Meta Ghost: Breaking Show | $17.99 | 1,497 72% | 45k | $808k (exactly $807,931) | Scarecrow Studio | |
 | FANTASIAN Neo Dimension | $49.99 | 500 76% | 15k | $750k (exactly $749,850) | Mistwalker Corporation | |
 | Relic Hunters Legend | $19.99 | 1,101 65% | 33k | $660k (exactly $660,270) | Rogue Snail |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.