Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Loot game?

Loot + Space

Of 46 developers who shipped a Space Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×585 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 102 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 102 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $38k → $31k → $449 → $2.2k → $179 → $30k → $6.3k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,479)
Top 5% $367k (exactly $367,405)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 105
Announced 102
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Crafting, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 60,999 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr older $49.99 19,552 75% 587k $29M (exactly $29,322,134) NeocoreGames
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Risk of Rain Returns older $14.99 24,795 89% 744k $11M (exactly $11,150,312) Hopoo Games
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
Astroloot · EA $6.99 587 92% 18k $123k (exactly $123,094) Andreas Hager Gaming
Star Vortex · EA $24.99 154 84% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Zorg Games
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Vortica $14.99 93 83% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Vortical Studios
Far Horizon $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) BEACHAM Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.