Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Loot game?

Loot + Gothic

Only 10 developers shipped a Gothic Loot game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shadow Dungeon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×662 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $7.2k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,182)
Top 25% $204k (exactly $203,714)
Top 5% $416k (exactly $415,684)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 28
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 78% positive over 2,538 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing older $14.99 7,720 83% 232k $3.5M (exactly $3,471,684) NeocoreGames
The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing: Final Cut older $44.99 1,959 76% 59k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,062) NeocoreGames
The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing II older $14.99 1,954 70% 59k $879k (exactly $878,714) NeocoreGames
Witch Hunt older $9.99 2,291 88% 69k $687k (exactly $686,613) Gua
Shadow Dungeon $9.99 1,387 78% 42k $416k (exactly $415,684) OO Cat
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment
Anima : The Reign of Darkness older $11.99 613 69% 18k $220k (exactly $220,496) Redeev
Tower of Kalemonvo $14.99 453 83% 14k $204k (exactly $203,714) osur
Shirone: the Dragon Girl older $14.99 117 99% 3.5k $53k (exactly $52,615) Oimoland
Ash & Rust $19.99 85 63% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Ash and Rust Studios
Obnulenie $3.99 60 63% 1.8k $7.2k (exactly $7,182) Artsiom Tsiareshka
Dark Fairy Tale $3.99 34 38% 1.0k $4.1k (exactly $4,070) Fun Workshop
Azoth & Ignis $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Vespertine Digital
Spiral to Despair $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) RewingAge
Ironwake · EA $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Seahorse Games
HORDELIGHT $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) AGAMED GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.