Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Loot game?

Loot + Historical

Of 21 developers who shipped a Historical Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4237 the market median. Revenue is up 385% on the market; 30 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 385% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $1.8k → $1.0k → $232k → $189k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,422)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 57
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 385% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Inventory Management, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 23,113 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Achilles: Legends Untold older $24.99 2,149 77% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,105) Dark Point Games
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Fate Seeker: Journey older $10.00 1,105 77% 33k $332k (exactly $331,500) JSL Entertainment
Tales of Spark · EA older $13.99 569 75% 17k $239k (exactly $238,809) Ice and Fire Isle Studio
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
Three Kingdoms Heroes $6.99 126 81% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 青衣工作室
Tribe Nation $9.99 24 79% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Random Worlds s.r.o.
Cloud Keeper: Shrine of Dal · EA $6.99 28 100% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) Jetpackgone
Gunslinger Express $4.99 20 75% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Glinnor
Regnum Idle $4.99 19 63% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Vexos Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.