Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Loot game?

Loot + Futuristic

Of 29 developers who shipped a Futuristic Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×8.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×6145 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 101 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 101 announced, ×8.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $597 → $13k → $10k → $1.1k → $7.0k → $379k → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,475)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,488)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 81
Announced 101
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 62,451 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion $69.99 1,838 63% 55k $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) Marvelous Inc.
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Prophecy older $24.99 2,884 79% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,162,135) NeocoreGames
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
The Great Rebellion older $15.99 546 96% 16k $262k (exactly $261,916) Kvltgames
A-Tech Cybernetic VR older $14.99 552 65% 17k $248k (exactly $248,234) XREAL Games
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
RIG Riot $19.99 195 94% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Sage Boatman
Ketz: Galactic Overlords · EA $8.99 386 71% 12k $104k (exactly $104,104) Keep Games
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Shell Runner $14.99 80 57% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) Reija
Far Horizon $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) BEACHAM Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.