Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Loot game?

Loot + Supernatural

Of 21 developers who shipped a Supernatural Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $60. Revenue is up 3005% on the market; 21 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 3005% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $716 → $69k → $269 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $537 (exactly $537)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $470k (exactly $469,643)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 39
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3005% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$6.66 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.66.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,698 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand older $39.99 2,773 74% 83k $3.3M (exactly $3,326,768) Deck13
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
Witch Hunt older $9.99 2,291 88% 69k $687k (exactly $686,613) Gua
Active Matter $29.99 522 75% 16k $470k (exactly $469,643) Matter Team
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Skinwalker Hunt older $12.99 790 91% 24k $308k (exactly $307,863) Gua
Midnight Heist $9.99 389 92% 12k $117k (exactly $116,583) MediaTale
Second Sun $19.99 115 69% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Grey Wolf Entertainment
Forsake: Urban horror older $9.99 157 80% 4.7k $47k (exactly $47,053) Unseen Interactive
Nullpoint Protocol $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Everbloom Games
Vesperia Bononia $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Power Up Team
Scorching Desert $19.99 7 14% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Desert Runner Studio
Abyss Chaser $6.66 13 100% 390 $2.6k (exactly $2,597) Bitrunner
King Quest $15.99 2 0% 60 $959 (exactly $959) slc studios
The Palaces of The Mind: Chapter One $1.99 12 83% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Logerofman Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.