Should I ship a Heist Loot game?
Loot + Heist
Only 16 developers shipped a Heist Loot game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Burglin' Gnomes, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2212 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 53 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) |
| Top 25% | $70k (exactly $70,153) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 51 |
| Announced | 53 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Loot; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 6,429 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds
- + Local Co-OpStrong odds
- + SteampunkStrong odds
- + CapitalismFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + JRPGFair
- + EconomyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + CatsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + CollectathonFair
Comparable games
Monaco: What's Yours Is Mine 2013 · $1.7M 
Burglin' Gnomes 2026 · $1.4M 
Turnip Boy Robs a Bank 2024 · $850k 
Robber Knight 2022 · EA · $341k 
Raw Metal 2024 · $271k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monaco: What's Yours Is Mine | older | $14.99 | 3,756 92% | 113k | $1.7M (exactly $1,689,073) | Pocketwatch Games |
| | Burglin' Gnomes | $9.99 | 4,635 83% | 139k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) | Fobri | |
| | Turnip Boy Robs a Bank | older | $14.99 | 1,890 95% | 57k | $850k (exactly $849,933) | Snoozy Kazoo |
| | Robber Knight | · EA older | $39.99 | 284 64% | 8.5k | $341k (exactly $340,715) | Sartorian |
| | Raw Metal | older | $19.99 | 452 88% | 14k | $271k (exactly $271,064) | Team Crucible |
 | The Masterplan | older | $19.99 | 374 62% | 11k | $224k (exactly $224,288) | Shark Punch |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | Gone Rogue | older | $14.99 | 282 87% | 8.5k | $127k (exactly $126,815) | AskaLot Games |
 | Midnight Heist | $9.99 | 389 92% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | MediaTale | |
 | Monaco 2 | $14.99 | 156 63% | 4.7k | $70k (exactly $70,153) | Pocketwatch Games | |
 | Burgle Supply Company | $7.99 | 85 88% | 2.6k | $20k (exactly $20,374) | Terrible Posture Games | |
 | Storage Looter | $7.99 | 20 100% | 600 | $4.8k (exactly $4,794) | Tekila | |
 | Loot Gobblin' Together | $7.99 | 20 90% | 600 | $4.8k (exactly $4,794) | J6 Games | |
 | Mall Heist | $7.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) | Evlnu GameWorks | |
 | Cloak And Coin | · EA | $4.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $898 (exactly $898) | netDOT |
 | Sneaky Tail | · EA | $8.00 | 2 100% | 60 | $480 (exactly $480) | PisiPisi Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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