Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Loot game?

Loot + Nature

Of 38 developers who shipped a Nature Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×415 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 98 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 98 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $71k → $14k → $119 → $1.6k → $2.3k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $260,439)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 83
Announced 98
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Incremental
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 2,128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
Dungeon Village older $8.99 829 88% 25k $224k (exactly $223,581) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Dungeon Village 2 older $8.99 662 86% 20k $179k (exactly $178,541) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Summon older $0.99 2,999 92% 90k $89k (exactly $89,070) Goosix Games
Athos · EA older $24.99 95 58% 2.9k $71k (exactly $71,222) Neojac Entertainment Inc.
Deep Diving Simulator older $19.99 98 62% 2.9k $59k (exactly $58,771) Jujubee S.A.
Backwoods Town · EA older $8.99 192 93% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Andrii Prots
Chop Chains $5.99 257 77% 7.7k $46k (exactly $46,183) Blasted Games
Lured In $7.99 151 84% 4.5k $36k (exactly $36,195) Big Boy Games
Desktop Heroes $5.99 103 69% 3.1k $19k (exactly $18,509) Telazer
Grove Fisher $4.99 98 67% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,671) EVIL CORP GAMES
Cozy Mining $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) tatsumaki games
Mosaica: Arboreal $4.99 44 81% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) RymPow
MINERALS: Deep Core Mining $6.99 23 78% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) THINK & FEEL
Storage Looter $7.99 20 100% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Tekila

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.