Do I ship it?

Games › Loot › Loot + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Loot game?

Loot + Crime

Only 11 developers shipped a Crime Loot game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Midnight Heist, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×186 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 33 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 33 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $599 → $70k → $898
Outcomes for Loot + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $70,153)
Top 5% $117k (exactly $116,583)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 36
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Loot
Price point
$8.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 78% positive over 844 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $900, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monaco: What's Yours Is Mine 2013 · $1.7M The Masterplan 2015 · $224k Gone Rogue 2023 · $127k Midnight Heist 2025 · $117k Frankie's FunClub 2025 · $106k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monaco: What's Yours Is Mine older $14.99 3,756 92% 113k $1.7M (exactly $1,689,073) Pocketwatch Games
The Masterplan older $19.99 374 62% 11k $224k (exactly $224,288) Shark Punch
Gone Rogue older $14.99 282 87% 8.5k $127k (exactly $126,815) AskaLot Games
Midnight Heist $9.99 389 92% 12k $117k (exactly $116,583) MediaTale
Frankie's FunClub $14.99 236 65% 7.1k $106k (exactly $106,129) LOVEBITES
Monaco 2 $14.99 156 63% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Pocketwatch Games
Light Fingers $19.99 17 76% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Numizmatic
The Faction older $19.99 11 63% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) GamesBraz
Shadow Vault older $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Mayhem Studios, ZOOM Platform Media, Jo… (Mayhem Studios, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Hacker Man older $19.99 8 12% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) GamesBraz
HorSteal $3.99 31 93% 930 $3.7k (exactly $3,711) JebiDeungDeung, Jebi Studio
After Midnight · EA $4.99 6 16% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Digital Forge
Cloak And Coin · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) netDOT
Town Diggers · EA $19.99 1 0% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Alin Games
Sneaky Tail · EA $8.00 2 100% 60 $480 (exactly $480) PisiPisi Games
Evershade The Forgotten Mansion $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Velthera studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.