Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Loot game?

Loot + Dystopian

Only 12 developers shipped a Dystopian Loot game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BULT: Hunting simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×415 the market median. Revenue is up 3775% on the market; 51 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 3775% on the market, 51 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $13k → $360 → $57k (still earning) → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $15k (exactly $15,467)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,643)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $260,439)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3775% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,664 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 51 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
The Great Rebellion older $15.99 546 96% 16k $262k (exactly $261,916) Kvltgames
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
A-Tech Cybernetic VR older $14.99 552 65% 17k $248k (exactly $248,234) XREAL Games
Entropy · EA $11.99 293 94% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Lovely Hellplace
Survivor Girls Sanctuary $9.99 189 64% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Survival Strategy !
Sector Six older $8.00 223 93% 6.7k $54k (exactly $53,520) V3663L
Shell Runner $14.99 80 57% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) Reija
StarCrawlers Chimera older $19.99 43 69% 1.3k $26k (exactly $25,787) Juggernaut Games
UNHUMAN $3.99 161 73% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,272) Kinda Lowkey Games
HOPE 01 · EA $11.99 43 88% 1.3k $15k (exactly $15,467) Bending Boy Games
Side Hustle $3.99 10 70% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) theJameskrik
The Palaces of The Mind: Chapter One $1.99 12 83% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Logerofman Studio
Azoth & Ignis $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Vespertine Digital
Vivisection $2.99 5 80% 150 $449 (exactly $449) LampDog Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.