Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat game?

Combat

Of 5,216 developers who shipped a Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10,710 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×661 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 10,710 games are announced against 3,084 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 10,710 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5,216
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $899 → $899 → $899 → $599 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5,216
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,472)
Top 5% $415k (exactly $414,992)
Developers, 2 yr 5,216
Released games 14,360
Announced 10,710
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,163,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 2,878 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10,710 games are announced against 3,084 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Combat

71 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Combat + Vampires Fair $1.9k 54 devs
  2. Combat + Snow Fair $1.2k 21 devs
  3. Combat + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $16k 52 devs
  4. Combat + Transhumanism Poor odds $8.1k 13 devs
  5. Combat + Rome Poor odds $6.5k 16 devs
  6. Combat + Faith Poor odds $6.3k 29 devs
  7. Combat + Historical Poor odds $4.8k 177 devs
  8. Combat + Capitalism Poor odds $3.3k 38 devs
  9. Combat + Romance Poor odds $3.0k 53 devs
  10. Combat + World War II Poor odds $2.7k 44 devs
  11. Combat + Female Protagonist Poor odds $2.6k 457 devs
  12. Combat + Dinosaurs Poor odds $2.5k 28 devs
  13. Combat + Cold War Poor odds $2.4k 24 devs
  14. Combat + Superhero Poor odds $2.2k 30 devs
  15. Combat + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.2k 147 devs
  16. Combat + Mechs Poor odds $2.2k 84 devs
  17. Combat + Music Poor odds $1.9k 29 devs
  18. Combat + Mythology Poor odds $1.8k 146 devs
  19. Combat + Cats Poor odds $1.7k 58 devs
  20. Combat + Alternate History Poor odds $1.6k 72 devs
  21. Combat + Dystopian Poor odds $1.6k 118 devs
  22. Combat + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.5k 138 devs
  23. Combat + Ninja Poor odds $1.5k 60 devs
  24. Combat + Time Travel Poor odds $1.5k 33 devs
  25. Combat + Lovecraftian Poor odds $1.5k 40 devs
  26. Combat + Detective Poor odds $1.4k 28 devs
  27. Combat + World War I Poor odds $1.4k 10 devs
  28. Combat + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.4k 315 devs
  29. Combat + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.4k 30 devs
  30. Combat + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $1.3k 109 devs
  31. Combat + Underground Poor odds $1.3k 51 devs
  32. Combat + Gothic Poor odds $1.3k 59 devs
  33. Combat + Horror Poor odds $1.2k 474 devs
  34. Combat + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 537 devs
  35. Combat + Dragons Poor odds $1.2k 57 devs
  36. Combat + War Poor odds $1.2k 373 devs
  37. Combat + Military Poor odds $1.2k 354 devs
  38. Combat + Crime Poor odds $1.2k 69 devs
  39. Combat + Medieval Poor odds $1.1k 606 devs
  40. Combat + Noir Poor odds $1.1k 46 devs
  41. Combat + Magic Poor odds $900 686 devs
  42. Combat + Modern Poor odds $900 101 devs
  43. Combat + Science Poor odds $900 32 devs
  44. Combat + Fantasy Poor odds $899 1,524 devs
  45. Combat + Naval Poor odds $899 39 devs
  46. Combat + Demons Poor odds $898 191 devs
  47. Combat + Psychological Poor odds $898 57 devs
  48. Combat + Pirates Poor odds $839 46 devs
  49. Combat + Thriller Poor odds $838 94 devs
  50. Combat + Steampunk Poor odds $838 40 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.