Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI Combat game?

Combat + World War I

Only 10 developers shipped a WWI Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Aces of Thunder, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1660 the market median. Revenue is up 52080% on the market; 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 52080% on the market, 28 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $150 → $599 → $150 → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,043)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 35
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 52080% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 1,779 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Beyond The Wire older $9.99 5,247 68% 157k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,526) Redstone Interactive
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
Stickman Trenches older $5.99 1,922 81% 58k $345k (exactly $345,383) Big Play Games
Warplanes: WW1 Fighters older $19.99 403 88% 12k $242k (exactly $241,679) Home Net Games
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
Wings of Glory older $14.99 92 80% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Dire Wolf
Time Commando older $5.99 105 94% 3.2k $19k (exactly $18,868) [2.21], Adeline Software
Red Wings: American Aces older $11.99 44 70% 1.3k $16k (exactly $15,827) All in! Games
Tactics of World War I $8.99 12 58% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Headless Horseman Games
Wings Of Rage $15.99 3 100% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Cyrille Fontaine
Furball Over the Front $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Page Blue House
Operation Anatolia: The Great Offensive $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Musa Yiğit Yayla
Aerial Lockdown $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) DryLight Games UF
Soviet Tide Arising! $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Page Blue House
Battleships Combat: Evolved $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Mantegral Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.