Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Combat game?

Combat + Romance

Of 53 developers who shipped a Romance Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×226 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 86 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 86 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $10k → $2.7k → $5.1k → $2.4k → $5.8k → $5.5k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,491)
Top 5% $142k (exactly $142,129)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 150
Announced 86
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Visual Novel
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,834 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Tales of ARISE older $49.99 27,643 86% 829k $41M (exactly $41,456,207) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition older $29.99 6,953 81% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,255,614) BioWare
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
Eternights older $29.99 3,046 85% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,740,486) Studio Sai
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Evenicle older $44.99 1,225 92% 37k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,382) Alicesoft
LUNAR Remastered Collection $49.99 576 91% 17k $864k (exactly $863,827) ASHIBI Co., Ltd., GAME ARTS Co., Ltd.
Awaken: Hentai Dice $14.99 333 57% 10k $150k (exactly $149,750) TopHouse Studio
Beloved Rapture $19.99 237 82% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Rapturous Studio
WANDERER: Broken Bed $14.99 314 65% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) TopHouse Studio
Kats Trigger · EA $8.99 440 88% 13k $119k (exactly $118,668) GIX
Troublemaker 2: Beyond Dream $24.99 142 95% 4.3k $106k (exactly $106,457) Gamecom Team
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
Survivor Strain - Season 1 $8.99 354 95% 11k $95k (exactly $95,474) Mr. Baker
DragonStone Revenge $14.99 146 60% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Entropy Digital Entertainment
CyberPimp 2069 $17.99 118 87% 3.5k $64k (exactly $63,685) Entropy Digital Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.