Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Combat game?

Combat + Female Protagonist

Of 457 developers who shipped a Female-Led Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 899 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1074 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 899 games are announced against 260 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 899 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 457
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $12k → $2.7k → $2.5k → $4.6k → $3.6k → $1.7k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 457
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,638)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,183)
Top 5% $675k (exactly $674,550)
Developers, 2 yr 457
Released games 1,202
Announced 899
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 220,922 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 247 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 899 games are announced against 260 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
Far Cry® 6 older $59.99 33,280 71% 998k $60M (exactly $59,894,016) Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin)
UNCHARTED™: Legacy of Thieves Collection older $49.99 29,422 90% 883k $44M (exactly $44,124,173) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Tales of ARISE older $49.99 27,643 86% 829k $41M (exactly $41,456,207) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.
AI LIMIT $34.99 22,833 92% 685k $24M (exactly $23,967,800) Sense Games
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
South of Midnight $39.99 4,382 94% 131k $5.3M (exactly $5,257,085) Compulsion Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.