Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Combat game?

Combat + Naval

Of 39 developers who shipped a Naval Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is up 380% on the market; 60 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 380% on the market, 60 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $99k → $4.5k → $3.9k → $20k → $807 → $2.4k → $6.3k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,568)
Top 5% $859k (exactly $859,214)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 98
Announced 60
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 380% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Naval Combat, Open World
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 29,701 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $900, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
Ship of Fools older $21.99 5,040 82% 151k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,888) Fika Productions
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Combat Air Patrol 2: Military Flight Simulator · EA older $29.99 356 47% 11k $320k (exactly $320,293) Sim155 Limited
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Battleship Command · EA $24.99 278 93% 8.3k $208k (exactly $208,417) Bracer
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.