Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Combat game?

Combat + Music

Of 29 developers who shipped a Music Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×236 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 46 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $263k → $33k → $4.2k → $1.9k → $449 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,189)
Top 5% $148k (exactly $148,008)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 76
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Rhythm, Arcade
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cartoony, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,078 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Metal: Hellsinger 2022 · $13M Ghostrunner 2 2023 · $9.6M ROBOBEAT 2024 · $1.0M Touhou: Scarlet Curiosity 2018 · $548k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Touhou: Scarlet Curiosity older $14.99 1,219 91% 37k $548k (exactly $548,184) Ankake Spa
Earthion $19.99 483 95% 14k $290k (exactly $289,655) Ancient Corporation, Bitwave Games
Deathbulge: Battle of the Bands older $19.99 439 98% 13k $263k (exactly $263,268) Deathbulge, Five Houses LLC
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
River City Girls Zero older $14.99 190 67% 5.7k $85k (exactly $85,443) WayForward
Bat Boy older $14.99 146 94% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) X PLUS Co., Ltd., Sonzai Games
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Look Mum No Computer $14.99 60 98% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) The Bitfather
Metavoidal $14.99 46 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Yellow Lab Games
Aaero2 $14.99 36 94% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Mad Fellows
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
KILLBEAT $9.99 24 100% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Kalma Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.