Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Combat game?

Combat + Lovecraftian

Of 40 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3367 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 122 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 122 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $91k → $6.0k → $11k → $5.4k → $838 → $21k → $600 (still earning) → $8.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,470)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $66,723)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 107
Announced 122
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 10,485 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $66k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hell is Us 2025 · $6.4M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Alone in the Dark 2024 · $4.0M CULTIC 2022 · $2.4M Vertigo 2 2023 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Alone in the Dark older $39.99 3,325 77% 100k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,002) Pieces Interactive
CULTIC older $9.99 8,027 97% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,692) Jasozz Games
Vertigo 2 older $29.99 2,579 95% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,320,326) Zach Tsiakalis-Brown
Forgive Me Father older $19.99 3,705 84% 111k $2.2M (exactly $2,221,888) Byte Barrel
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Eldest Souls older $19.99 3,125 76% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,062) Fallen Flag Studio
HYPER DEMON older $14.99 3,087 94% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,388,224) Sorath
Forgive Me Father 2 $24.99 1,500 81% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,550) Byte Barrel
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Beneath $19.99 262 69% 7.9k $157k (exactly $157,121) Camel 101
We Gotta Go $9.99 237 60% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,029) FuzzyBot
HYPERVIOLENT $14.99 156 67% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) nfoPRINCE, Terminist Arcade
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.